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TCU vs West Virginia prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
TCU 58% win42% WVU
28Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
TCU Horned Frogs
Record 3–4 · #48 in ratings
Neutral site
West Virginia Mountaineers
Record 5–3 · #67 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 66 vs 52
- Projected
- TCU favored
- Differential
- 3.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- TCU by 3.1
- Projected total
- 52.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- TCU wins by 21+
- 12.7%
- West Virginia wins by 21+
- 6.2%
- Median score
- 27–24
- Model expectation
- 27.3–24.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are TCU wins, bars on the left are West Virginia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- West Virginia 24, TCU 2061 games
- TCU 20, West Virginia 1754 games
- TCU 27, West Virginia 1754 games
- TCU 24, West Virginia 1752 games
- TCU 31, West Virginia 2750 games
- TCU 27, West Virginia 2348 games
Where the edges are
TCU offense vs West Virginia defenseOffense -5.2Defense -6.7Edge TCU: its offense is 1.5 points better than West Virginia's defense.
West Virginia offense vs TCU defenseOffense +7.2Defense +8.9Edge TCU: its defense is 1.7 points better than West Virginia's offense.
| Stat | TCU | West Virginia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.26 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.8% | 42.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.7% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 13.9 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.