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Temple vs East Carolina prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:00 PM CT, at East Carolina
TEM 37% win63% ECU
24Projected32If TEM upsets
vs
29Projected22If TEM upsetsAway
Temple Owls
Record 2–5 · #102 in ratings
Home
East Carolina Pirates
Record 3–4 · #94 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | TEM | ECU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 37 | 60 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog37%Temple wins on the road
If Temple plays at home53% ▲
Temple: 1 win over a higher-rated team (South Florida 17–13)
East Carolina: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (UAB 17–30)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Temple won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- ECU 24, TEM 2066 games
- ECU 34, TEM 2757 games
- TEM 24, ECU 2056 games
- ECU 27, TEM 2056 games
- ECU 30, TEM 2452 games
- Power index
- 26 vs 32
- Projected
- ECU favored
- Differential
- 4.8 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at East Carolina, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:00 PM CT, at East Carolina.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- East Carolina by 4.8
- Projected total
- 53.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Temple wins by 21+
- 4.8%
- East Carolina wins by 21+
- 14.8%
- Median score
- 24–29
- Model expectation
- 24.1–29
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Temple wins, bars on the left are East Carolina wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Temple offense vs East Carolina defenseOffense -2.3Defense -2.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
East Carolina offense vs Temple defenseOffense -2.0Defense -3.7Edge East Carolina: its offense is 1.7 points better than Temple's defense.
| Stat | Temple | East Carolina | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.21 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.4% | 38.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 36.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.7 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0 | 26.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
