Loading the matchup…
Temple vs UConn prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
TEM 32% win68% CONN
25Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Temple Owls
Record 2–5 · #102 in ratings
Neutral site
UConn Huskies
Record 4–3 · #61 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 26 vs 56
- Projected
- CONN favored
- Differential
- 7.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UConn by 7.2
- Projected total
- 57.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Temple wins by 21+
- 3.5%
- UConn wins by 21+
- 19.5%
- Median score
- 24–32
- Model expectation
- 25.1–32
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Temple wins, bars on the left are UConn wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UConn 34, Temple 2056 games
- UConn 34, Temple 1754 games
- UConn 37, Temple 2454 games
- UConn 30, Temple 2449 games
- UConn 34, Temple 2748 games
- UConn 30, Temple 2747 games
Where the edges are
Temple offense vs UConn defenseOffense -2.3Defense -1.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
UConn offense vs Temple defenseOffense +2.4Defense -3.7Edge UConn: its offense is 6.2 points better than Temple's defense.
| Stat | Temple | UConn | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.21 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.4% | 43.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.7 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0 | 23.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.