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Texas State vs Boise State prediction
Kickoff Sat 9:00 PM CT, at Boise State
TXST 25% win75% BOIS
26Projected36If TXST upsets
vs
36Projected27If TXST upsetsAway
Texas State Bobcats
Record 4–3 · #62 in ratings
Home
Boise State Broncos
Record 6–1 · #25 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (41)
Starts at 41, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | TXST | BOIS | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 54 | 56 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog25%Texas State wins on the road
If Texas State plays at home40% ▲
Texas State: 1 win over a higher-rated team (North Texas 49–35)
Boise State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Oregon 27–34)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Texas State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- BOIS 34, TXST 2759 games
- BOIS 37, TXST 1751 games
- BOIS 30, TXST 2751 games
- BOIS 37, TXST 2050 games
- BOIS 27, TXST 2049 games
- Power index
- 55 vs 82
- Projected
- BOIS favored
- Differential
- 9.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Boise State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 9:00 PM CT, at Boise State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Boise State by 9.5
- Projected total
- 61.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.8%
- Went to overtime
- 2.8%
- Texas State wins by 21+
- 2.1%
- Boise State wins by 21+
- 22.4%
- Median score
- 26–36
- Model expectation
- 25.8–35.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Texas State wins, bars on the left are Boise State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Texas State offense vs Boise State defenseOffense +2.6Defense +1.1Edge Texas State: its offense is 1.6 points better than Boise State's defense.
Boise State offense vs Texas State defenseOffense +6.4Defense -1.9Edge Boise State: its offense is 8.3 points better than Texas State's defense.
| Stat | Texas State | Boise State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.28 | 0.32 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.9% | 47.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 36.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.1 | 34.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.0 | 20.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
