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Texas State vs UTSA prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
TXST 45% win55% UTSA
30Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Texas State Bobcats
Record 4–3 · #62 in ratings
Neutral site
UTSA Roadrunners
Record 7–1 · #55 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 55 vs 61
- Projected
- UTSA favored
- Differential
- 2.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UTSA by 2.0
- Projected total
- 62.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Texas State wins by 21+
- 7.2%
- UTSA wins by 21+
- 11.8%
- Median score
- 30–31
- Model expectation
- 29.9–31.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Texas State wins, bars on the left are UTSA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UTSA 34, Texas State 2751 games
- UTSA 34, Texas State 3045 games
- Texas State 34, UTSA 3043 games
- Texas State 34, UTSA 2742 games
- Texas State 27, UTSA 2040 games
- Texas State 30, UTSA 2740 games
Where the edges are
Texas State offense vs UTSA defenseOffense +2.6Defense -1.5Edge Texas State: its offense is 4.1 points better than UTSA's defense.
UTSA offense vs Texas State defenseOffense +4.2Defense -1.9Edge UTSA: its offense is 6.1 points better than Texas State's defense.
| Stat | Texas State | UTSA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.28 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.9% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 40.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.1 | 33.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.0 | 26.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.