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Texas State vs Washington State prediction
Kickoff Sat 5:00 PM CT, at Texas State
TXST 80% win20% WSU
32Projected22If WSU upsets
vs
20Projected31If WSU upsetsHome
Texas State Bobcats
Record 4–3 · #62 in ratings
Away
Washington State Cougars
Record 1–7 · #118 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | TXST | WSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 54 | 61 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert20%Washington State wins on the road
If Washington State plays at home33% ▲
Washington State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Texas State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (San Diego State 29–31)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Washington State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TXST 27, WSU 1783 games
- TXST 30, WSU 2062 games
- TXST 34, WSU 1759 games
- TXST 34, WSU 2458 games
- TXST 30, WSU 1750 games
- Power index
- 55 vs 15
- Projected
- TXST favored
- Differential
- 12.2 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Texas State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 5:00 PM CT, at Texas State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas State by 12.2
- Projected total
- 52.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- Texas State wins by 21+
- 28.7%
- Washington State wins by 21+
- 1.6%
- Median score
- 32–20
- Model expectation
- 32.2–19.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Texas State wins, bars on the left are Washington State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Texas State offense vs Washington State defenseOffense +2.6Defense -2.2Edge Texas State: its offense is 4.9 points better than Washington State's defense.
Washington State offense vs Texas State defenseOffense -6.2Defense -1.9Edge Texas State: its defense is 4.3 points better than Washington State's offense.
| Stat | Texas State | Washington State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.28 | -0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.14 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.9% | 34.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1% | 41.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.1 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.0 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
