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Texas Tech vs West Virginia prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Texas Tech
TTU 75% win25% WVU
40Projected30If WVU upsets
vs
29Projected40If WVU upsetsHome
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record 6–1 · #20 in ratings
Away
West Virginia Mountaineers
Record 5–3 · #67 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (54)
Starts at 54, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | TTU | WVU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 54 | 49 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog25%West Virginia wins on the road
If West Virginia plays at home37% ▲
West Virginia: 3 wins over higher-rated teams (TCU 24–20, Cincinnati 45–42 +1 more)
Texas Tech: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Cincinnati 24–37)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games West Virginia won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TTU 37, WVU 2741 games
- TTU 44, WVU 3438 games
- TTU 34, WVU 2437 games
- TTU 37, WVU 3136 games
- TTU 44, WVU 2736 games
- Power index
- 86 vs 52
- Projected
- TTU favored
- Differential
- 11.3 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Texas Tech, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Texas Tech.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas Tech by 11.3
- Projected total
- 69.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.6%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Texas Tech wins by 21+
- 29.2%
- West Virginia wins by 21+
- 2.8%
- Median score
- 40–28
- Model expectation
- 39.9–28.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Texas Tech wins, bars on the left are West Virginia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Texas Tech offense vs West Virginia defenseOffense +5.9Defense -6.7Edge Texas Tech: its offense is 12.7 points better than West Virginia's defense.
West Virginia offense vs Texas Tech defenseOffense +7.2Defense +2.8Edge West Virginia: its offense is 4.4 points better than Texas Tech's defense.
| Stat | Texas Tech | West Virginia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.04 | 0.26 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.8% | 42.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.9% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.9 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.4 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.