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Texas vs Texas A&M prediction
Kickoff Fri 6:30 PM CT, at Texas A&M
TEX 60% win40% TA&M
22Projected15If TA&M upsets
vs
19Projected26If TA&M upsetsAway
Texas Longhorns
Record 5–2 · #9 in ratings
Home
Texas A&M Aggies
Record 4–4 · #38 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | TEX | TA&M | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 66 | 46 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up40%Texas A&M wins at home
At a neutral site32% ▼
Texas A&M: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Texas: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Florida 24–27, Oklahoma 24–27)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Texas A&M won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TEX 20, TA&M 1790 games
- TEX 24, TA&M 1783 games
- TEX 20, TA&M 1082 games
- TEX 17, TA&M 1081 games
- TEX 17, TA&M 1376 games
- Power index
- 94 vs 73
- Projected
- TEX favored
- Differential
- 3.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Texas A&M, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 6:30 PM CT, at Texas A&M.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas by 3.5
- Projected total
- 40.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.2%
- Went to overtime
- 4.9%
- Texas wins by 21+
- 11.3%
- Texas A&M wins by 21+
- 4.8%
- Median score
- 21–17
- Model expectation
- 21.7–18.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Texas wins, bars on the left are Texas A&M wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Texas offense vs Texas A&M defenseOffense +3.7Defense +6.2Edge Texas A&M: its defense is 2.6 points better than Texas's offense.
Texas A&M offense vs Texas defenseOffense -1.1Defense +8.0Edge Texas: its defense is 9.0 points better than Texas A&M's offense.
| Stat | Texas | Texas A&M | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.00 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.0% | 42.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.4% | 39.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.7 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 19.1 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.