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Toledo vs Sacramento State prediction
Kickoff Tue 11:00 PM CT, at Sacramento State
TOL 88% win12% SAC
36Projected23If SAC upsets
vs
19Projected31If SAC upsetsAway
Toledo Rockets
Record 6–2 · #65 in ratings
Home
Sacramento State Hornets
Record 1–7 · #137 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (55)
Starts at 55, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | TOL | SAC | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 74 | 76 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert12%Sacramento State wins at home
At a neutral site8% ▼
Sacramento State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Toledo: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Buffalo 8–23, Michigan State 20–30)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Sacramento State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TOL 33, SAC 1763 games
- TOL 34, SAC 1759 games
- TOL 34, SAC 1058 games
- TOL 37, SAC 1056 games
- TOL 30, SAC 1753 games
- Power index
- 53 vs 1
- Projected
- TOL favored
- Differential
- 17.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Sacramento State, luck set to normal. The real game is Tue 11:00 PM CT, at Sacramento State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Toledo by 17.5
- Projected total
- 55.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 22.9%
- Went to overtime
- 1.8%
- Toledo wins by 21+
- 42.1%
- Sacramento State wins by 21+
- 0.5%
- Median score
- 36–17
- Model expectation
- 36.2–18.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Toledo wins, bars on the left are Sacramento State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Toledo offense vs Sacramento State defenseOffense +4.1Defense -7.8Edge Toledo: its offense is 11.9 points better than Sacramento State's defense.
Sacramento State offense vs Toledo defenseOffense -12.0Defense -3.5Edge Toledo: its defense is 8.5 points better than Sacramento State's offense.
| Stat | Toledo | Sacramento State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | -0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.02 | 0.19 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.0% | 36.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.8% | 41.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.4 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
