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Troy vs UL Monroe prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
TROY 69% win31% ULM
30Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Troy Trojans
Record 3–4 · #124 in ratings
Neutral site
UL Monroe Warhawks
Record 1–6 · #136 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 10 vs 1
- Projected
- TROY favored
- Differential
- 7.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Troy by 7.3
- Projected total
- 52.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Troy wins by 21+
- 19.0%
- UL Monroe wins by 21+
- 3.6%
- Median score
- 30–21
- Model expectation
- 29.4–22.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Troy wins, bars on the left are UL Monroe wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UL Monroe 24, Troy 2066 games
- Troy 27, UL Monroe 1764 games
- Troy 27, UL Monroe 2055 games
- Troy 30, UL Monroe 1752 games
- Troy 27, UL Monroe 2452 games
- Troy 30, UL Monroe 2051 games
Where the edges are
Troy offense vs UL Monroe defenseOffense -5.0Defense -8.6Edge Troy: its offense is 3.6 points better than UL Monroe's defense.
UL Monroe offense vs Troy defenseOffense -7.7Defense -4.0Edge Troy: its defense is 3.6 points better than UL Monroe's offense.
| Stat | Troy | UL Monroe | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | -0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.06 | 0.24 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.1% | 40.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 46.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.9 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.