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Troy vs Utah State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
TROY 50% win50% USU
20.1Projected
vs
20.2ProjectedNeutral site
Troy Trojans
Record 3–4 · #124 in ratings
Neutral site
Utah State Aggies
Record 2–5 · #123 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 10 vs 11
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 40.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.3%
- Went to overtime
- 5.0%
- Troy wins by 21+
- 7.3%
- Utah State wins by 21+
- 7.1%
- Median score
- 20–20
- Model expectation
- 19.6–19.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Troy wins, bars on the left are Utah State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Troy 17, Utah State 1083 games
- Utah State 17, Troy 1079 games
- Utah State 24, Troy 1776 games
- Utah State 17, Troy 1374 games
- Utah State 24, Troy 1072 games
- Troy 17, Utah State 1371 games
Where the edges are
Troy offense vs Utah State defenseOffense -5.0Defense +1.1Edge Utah State: its defense is 6.2 points better than Troy's offense.
Utah State offense vs Troy defenseOffense -9.9Defense -4.0Edge Troy: its defense is 5.9 points better than Utah State's offense.
| Stat | Troy | Utah State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.06 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.1% | 36.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 40.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 22.9 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.9 | 23.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.