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Tulane vs UTSA prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
TULN 32% win68% UTSA
22Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Tulane Green Wave
Record 3–4 · #89 in ratings
Neutral site
UTSA Roadrunners
Record 7–1 · #55 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 36 vs 61
- Projected
- UTSA favored
- Differential
- 6.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UTSA by 6.7
- Projected total
- 49.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Tulane wins by 21+
- 3.6%
- UTSA wins by 21+
- 17.9%
- Median score
- 20–27
- Model expectation
- 21.3–27.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Tulane wins, bars on the left are UTSA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UTSA 27, Tulane 2068 games
- UTSA 27, Tulane 1064 games
- UTSA 27, Tulane 1359 games
- Tulane 27, UTSA 2358 games
- UTSA 27, Tulane 1758 games
- Tulane 24, UTSA 2055 games
Where the edges are
Tulane offense vs UTSA defenseOffense -5.9Defense -1.5Edge UTSA: its defense is 4.4 points better than Tulane's offense.
UTSA offense vs Tulane defenseOffense +4.2Defense +2.2Edge UTSA: its offense is 2.0 points better than Tulane's defense.
| Stat | Tulane | UTSA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 32.7% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7% | 40.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.3 | 33.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6 | 26.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.