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Tulsa vs Tulane prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Tulane
TLSA 52% win48% TULN
22Projected16If TULN upsets
vs
21Projected28If TULN upsetsAway
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Record 4–4 · #72 in ratings
Home
Tulane Green Wave
Record 3–4 · #89 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (51)
Starts at 51, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | TLSA | TULN | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 45 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up48%Tulane wins at home
At a neutral site39% ▼
Tulane: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Memphis 31–17, South Alabama 28–24)
Tulsa: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Navy 26–34, Arkansas 6–34)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Tulane won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TLSA 24, TULN 1781 games
- TULN 24, TLSA 2072 games
- TULN 24, TLSA 1772 games
- TLSA 20, TULN 1772 games
- TULN 27, TLSA 2069 games
- Power index
- 48 vs 36
- Projected
- TLSA favored
- Differential
- 0.7 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Tulane, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Tulane.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Tulsa by 0.7
- Projected total
- 44.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.7%
- Went to overtime
- 4.7%
- Tulsa wins by 21+
- 8.5%
- Tulane wins by 21+
- 7.2%
- Median score
- 21–21
- Model expectation
- 22.1–21.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Tulsa wins, bars on the left are Tulane wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Tulsa offense vs Tulane defenseOffense +0.0Defense +2.2Edge Tulane: its defense is 2.2 points better than Tulsa's offense.
Tulane offense vs Tulsa defenseOffense -5.9Defense +0.1Edge Tulsa: its defense is 6.0 points better than Tulane's offense.
| Stat | Tulsa | Tulane | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.08 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.9% | 32.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.9% | 42.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 29.8 | 20.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.