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UAB vs UTSA prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at UAB
UAB 35% win65% UTSA
24Projected32If UAB upsets
vs
30Projected22If UAB upsetsHome
UAB Blazers
Record 4–3 · #103 in ratings
Away
UTSA Roadrunners
Record 7–1 · #55 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (55)
Starts at 55, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | UAB | UTSA | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 58 | 81 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog35%UAB wins at home
At a neutral site28% ▼
UAB: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (East Carolina 30–17, Navy 24–20)
UTSA: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games UAB won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UTSA 34, UAB 2063 games
- UTSA 27, UAB 2455 games
- UTSA 27, UAB 2055 games
- UTSA 27, UAB 1752 games
- UTSA 27, UAB 2351 games
- Power index
- 26 vs 61
- Projected
- UTSA favored
- Differential
- 6.1 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at UAB, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at UAB.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UTSA by 6.1
- Projected total
- 53.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- UAB wins by 21+
- 4.6%
- UTSA wins by 21+
- 17.7%
- Median score
- 23–30
- Model expectation
- 23.7–29.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are UAB wins, bars on the left are UTSA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
UAB offense vs UTSA defenseOffense -5.1Defense -1.5Edge UTSA: its defense is 3.6 points better than UAB's offense.
UTSA offense vs UAB defenseOffense +4.2Defense -1.1Edge UTSA: its offense is 5.3 points better than UAB's defense.
| Stat | UAB | UTSA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.04 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.02 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.5% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.4% | 40.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.3 | 33.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6 | 26.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.