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UCLA vs Nevada prediction
Kickoff Sat 3:15 PM CT, at UCLA
UCLA 89% win11% NEV
33Projected19If NEV upsets
vs
15Projected27If NEV upsetsHome
UCLA Bruins
Record 7–0 · #8 in ratings
Away
Nevada Wolf Pack
Record 3–4 · #87 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (62)
Starts at 62, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | UCLA | NEV | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 4.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 80 | 58 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert11%Nevada wins on the road
If Nevada plays at home20% ▲
Nevada: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
UCLA: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Nevada won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UCLA 27, NEV 1068 games
- UCLA 27, NEV 765 games
- UCLA 41, NEV 1059 games
- UCLA 30, NEV 1459 games
- UCLA 24, NEV 1058 games
- Power index
- 95 vs 37
- Projected
- UCLA favored
- Differential
- 18.6 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at UCLA, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 3:15 PM CT, at UCLA.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UCLA by 18.6
- Projected total
- 47.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 21.2%
- Went to overtime
- 1.9%
- UCLA wins by 21+
- 44.1%
- Nevada wins by 21+
- 0.6%
- Median score
- 33–14
- Model expectation
- 33.2–14.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are UCLA wins, bars on the left are Nevada wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
UCLA offense vs Nevada defenseOffense +4.5Defense -1.5Edge UCLA: its offense is 5.9 points better than Nevada's defense.
Nevada offense vs UCLA defenseOffense -1.9Defense +8.0Edge UCLA: its defense is 9.9 points better than Nevada's offense.
| Stat | UCLA | Nevada | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.18 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.8% | 40.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.3% | 36.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.4 | 26.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3 | 22.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
