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UCLA vs Wisconsin prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UCLA 62% win38% WIS
23Projected
vs
19ProjectedNeutral site
UCLA Bruins
Record 7–0 · #8 in ratings
Neutral site
Wisconsin Badgers
Record 5–2 · #23 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 95 vs 84
- Projected
- UCLA favored
- Differential
- 4.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UCLA by 4.2
- Projected total
- 42.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.1%
- Went to overtime
- 4.6%
- UCLA wins by 21+
- 12.7%
- Wisconsin wins by 21+
- 4.3%
- Median score
- 23–17
- Model expectation
- 22.7–18.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are UCLA wins, bars on the left are Wisconsin wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UCLA 24, Wisconsin 1785 games
- UCLA 24, Wisconsin 2079 games
- UCLA 20, Wisconsin 1779 games
- UCLA 17, Wisconsin 1072 games
- UCLA 20, Wisconsin 1069 games
- Wisconsin 24, UCLA 1767 games
Where the edges are
UCLA offense vs Wisconsin defenseOffense +4.5Defense +7.5Edge Wisconsin: its defense is 3.0 points better than UCLA's offense.
Wisconsin offense vs UCLA defenseOffense +0.8Defense +8.0Edge UCLA: its defense is 7.2 points better than Wisconsin's offense.
| Stat | UCLA | Wisconsin | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.18 | -0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.8% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.3% | 37.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 34.4 | 27.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.