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UConn vs Air Force prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:00 PM CT, at Air Force
CONN 45% win55% AF
27Projected34If CONN upsets
vs
29Projected23If CONN upsetsAway
UConn Huskies
Record 4–3 · #61 in ratings
Home
Air Force Falcons
Record 5–2 · #74 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | CONN | AF | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 82 | 48 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up45%UConn wins on the road
If UConn plays at home62% ▲
UConn: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Air Force: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Wyoming 14–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games UConn won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- CONN 31, AF 2762 games
- AF 27, CONN 2458 games
- AF 27, CONN 2057 games
- AF 34, CONN 2750 games
- AF 24, CONN 2049 games
- Power index
- 56 vs 47
- Projected
- AF favored
- Differential
- 1.8 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Air Force, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:00 PM CT, at Air Force.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Air Force by 1.8
- Projected total
- 56.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- UConn wins by 21+
- 7.0%
- Air Force wins by 21+
- 10.7%
- Median score
- 27–29
- Model expectation
- 27.1–28.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are UConn wins, bars on the left are Air Force wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
UConn offense vs Air Force defenseOffense +2.4Defense -0.4Edge UConn: its offense is 2.9 points better than Air Force's defense.
Air Force offense vs UConn defenseOffense +0.0Defense -1.6Edge Air Force: its offense is 1.6 points better than UConn's defense.
| Stat | UConn | Air Force | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.9% | 48.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.3% | 39.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.6 | 28.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.9 | 20.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
