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UConn vs Wyoming prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Wyoming
CONN 66% win35% WYO
26Projected18If WYO upsets
vs
21Projected28If WYO upsetsAway
UConn Huskies
Record 4–3 · #61 in ratings
Home
Wyoming Cowboys
Record 5–3 · #113 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (48)
Starts at 48, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | CONN | WYO | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 82 | 44 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog35%Wyoming wins at home
At a neutral site28% ▼
Wyoming: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Air Force 28–14, San José State 16–13)
UConn: 3 losses to lower-rated teams (Syracuse 41–42, Miami (OH) 21–24 +1 more)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Wyoming won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- CONN 24, WYO 1779 games
- CONN 27, WYO 1778 games
- CONN 24, WYO 2077 games
- CONN 20, WYO 1770 games
- WYO 24, CONN 2063 games
- Power index
- 56 vs 18
- Projected
- CONN favored
- Differential
- 5.4 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Wyoming, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Wyoming.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UConn by 5.4
- Projected total
- 46.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.4%
- UConn wins by 21+
- 14.2%
- Wyoming wins by 21+
- 3.6%
- Median score
- 26–20
- Model expectation
- 25.5–20.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are UConn wins, bars on the left are Wyoming wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
UConn offense vs Wyoming defenseOffense +2.4Defense +1.2Edge UConn: its offense is 1.3 points better than Wyoming's defense.
Wyoming offense vs UConn defenseOffense -8.6Defense -1.6Edge UConn: its defense is 7.0 points better than Wyoming's offense.
| Stat | UConn | Wyoming | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.9% | 46.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.3% | 44.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.6 | 19.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.9 | 20.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
