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UL Monroe vs Southern Miss prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at UL Monroe
ULM 43% win57% USM
28Projected35If ULM upsets
vs
30Projected23If ULM upsetsHome
UL Monroe Warhawks
Record 1–6 · #136 in ratings
Away
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Record 2–5 · #127 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (48)
Starts at 48, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ULM | USM | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 46 | 58 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up43%UL Monroe wins at home
At a neutral site35% ▼
UL Monroe: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Troy 21–14)
Southern Miss: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games UL Monroe won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- ULM 27, USM 2453 games
- ULM 34, USM 3051 games
- USM 34, ULM 2750 games
- USM 31, ULM 2747 games
- USM 27, ULM 2344 games
- Power index
- 1 vs 8
- Projected
- USM favored
- Differential
- 2.6 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at UL Monroe, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at UL Monroe.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Southern Miss by 2.6
- Projected total
- 58.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- UL Monroe wins by 21+
- 7.1%
- Southern Miss wins by 21+
- 12.5%
- Median score
- 27–30
- Model expectation
- 27.6–30
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are UL Monroe wins, bars on the left are Southern Miss wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
UL Monroe offense vs Southern Miss defenseOffense -7.7Defense -8.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
Southern Miss offense vs UL Monroe defenseOffense -2.9Defense -8.6Edge Southern Miss: its offense is 5.7 points better than UL Monroe's defense.
| Stat | UL Monroe | Southern Miss | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.05 | 0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.22 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.8% | 41.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9% | 42.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 37.3 | 32.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
