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UNLV vs Wyoming prediction
Kickoff Sat 9:30 PM CT, at UNLV
UNLV 77% win23% WYO
23Projected14If WYO upsets
vs
14Projected22If WYO upsetsHome
UNLV Rebels
Record 4–3 · #78 in ratings
Away
Wyoming Cowboys
Record 5–3 · #113 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | UNLV | WYO | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 66 | 44 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert23%Wyoming wins on the road
If Wyoming plays at home39% ▲
Wyoming: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Air Force 28–14, San José State 16–13)
UNLV: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Wyoming won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UNLV 17, WYO 10116 games
- UNLV 20, WYO 10106 games
- UNLV 24, WYO 10103 games
- UNLV 17, WYO 799 games
- UNLV 24, WYO 798 games
- Power index
- 44 vs 18
- Projected
- UNLV favored
- Differential
- 9.8 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at UNLV, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 9:30 PM CT, at UNLV.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UNLV by 9.8
- Projected total
- 37.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.7%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- UNLV wins by 21+
- 20.9%
- Wyoming wins by 21+
- 1.3%
- Median score
- 23–13
- Model expectation
- 23–13.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are UNLV wins, bars on the left are Wyoming wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
UNLV offense vs Wyoming defenseOffense -3.1Defense +1.2Edge Wyoming: its defense is 4.2 points better than UNLV's offense.
Wyoming offense vs UNLV defenseOffense -8.6Defense +2.3Edge UNLV: its defense is 10.8 points better than Wyoming's offense.
| Stat | UNLV | Wyoming | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.09 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.3% | 46.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.5% | 44.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.1 | 19.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7 | 20.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
