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USC vs Washington prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
USC 67% win33% WASH
33Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
USC Trojans
Record 6–2 · #33 in ratings
Neutral site
Washington Huskies
Record 4–3 · #77 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 77 vs 45
- Projected
- USC favored
- Differential
- 6.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- USC by 6.5
- Projected total
- 59.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- USC wins by 21+
- 18.1%
- Washington wins by 21+
- 3.8%
- Median score
- 33–26
- Model expectation
- 32.7–26.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are USC wins, bars on the left are Washington wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- USC 30, Washington 2752 games
- USC 34, Washington 2051 games
- USC 34, Washington 2749 games
- USC 34, Washington 2448 games
- USC 30, Washington 2448 games
- USC 27, Washington 2046 games
Where the edges are
USC offense vs Washington defenseOffense +6.1Defense -0.9Edge USC: its offense is 7.0 points better than Washington's defense.
Washington offense vs USC defenseOffense +0.1Defense -0.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | USC | Washington | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.25 | 0.14 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.12 | -0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.0% | 43.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 39.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.8 | 27.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 | 22.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.