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USC vs Wisconsin prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
USC 43% win57% WIS
25Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
USC Trojans
Record 6–2 · #33 in ratings
Neutral site
Wisconsin Badgers
Record 5–2 · #23 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 77 vs 84
- Projected
- WIS favored
- Differential
- 2.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wisconsin by 2.3
- Projected total
- 51.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.2%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- USC wins by 21+
- 6.3%
- Wisconsin wins by 21+
- 10.7%
- Median score
- 24–27
- Model expectation
- 24.4–26.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are USC wins, bars on the left are Wisconsin wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Wisconsin 27, USC 1769 games
- USC 27, Wisconsin 2463 games
- Wisconsin 27, USC 2061 games
- Wisconsin 27, USC 2458 games
- Wisconsin 24, USC 1758 games
- Wisconsin 27, USC 2356 games
Where the edges are
USC offense vs Wisconsin defenseOffense +6.1Defense +7.5Edge Wisconsin: its defense is 1.4 points better than USC's offense.
Wisconsin offense vs USC defenseOffense +0.8Defense -0.2Edge Wisconsin: its offense is 1.0 points better than USC's defense.
| Stat | USC | Wisconsin | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.25 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.12 | -0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.0% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 37.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 32.8 | 27.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.