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Utah State vs Washington State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
USU 49% win51% WSU
18.5Projected
vs
18.8ProjectedNeutral site
Utah State Aggies
Record 2–5 · #123 in ratings
Neutral site
Washington State Cougars
Record 1–7 · #118 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 11 vs 15
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 37.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 47.3%
- Went to overtime
- 5.3%
- Utah State wins by 21+
- 6.6%
- Washington State wins by 21+
- 7.2%
- Median score
- 17–17
- Model expectation
- 18.1–18.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Utah State wins, bars on the left are Washington State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Washington State 17, Utah State 1493 games
- Utah State 17, Washington State 1089 games
- Washington State 17, Utah State 1085 games
- Utah State 17, Washington State 1385 games
- Utah State 20, Washington State 1779 games
- Washington State 24, Utah State 1779 games
Where the edges are
Utah State offense vs Washington State defenseOffense -9.9Defense -2.2Edge Washington State: its defense is 7.7 points better than Utah State's offense.
Washington State offense vs Utah State defenseOffense -6.2Defense +1.1Edge Utah State: its defense is 7.3 points better than Washington State's offense.
| Stat | Utah State | Washington State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.04 | -0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.14 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.1% | 34.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2% | 41.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.