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Utah vs Cincinnati prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:45 PM CT, at Cincinnati
UTAH 63% win37% CIN
32Projected24If CIN upsets
vs
27Projected34If CIN upsetsAway
Utah Utes
Record 7–0 · #12 in ratings
Home
Cincinnati Bearcats
Record 5–2 · #54 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (48)
Starts at 48, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | UTAH | CIN | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 53 | 62 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog37%Cincinnati wins at home
At a neutral site30% ▼
Cincinnati: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Texas Tech 37–24)
Utah: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Cincinnati won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UTAH 30, CIN 2759 games
- UTAH 34, CIN 2749 games
- UTAH 23, CIN 2046 games
- UTAH 30, CIN 2045 games
- UTAH 27, CIN 2445 games
- Power index
- 92 vs 61
- Projected
- UTAH favored
- Differential
- 5.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Cincinnati, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:45 PM CT, at Cincinnati.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Utah by 5.1
- Projected total
- 58.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Utah wins by 21+
- 15.7%
- Cincinnati wins by 21+
- 4.7%
- Median score
- 31–27
- Model expectation
- 31.4–26.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Utah wins, bars on the left are Cincinnati wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Utah offense vs Cincinnati defenseOffense +5.9Defense -1.3Edge Utah: its offense is 7.1 points better than Cincinnati's defense.
Cincinnati offense vs Utah defenseOffense +4.0Defense +5.0Edge Utah: its defense is 1.1 points better than Cincinnati's offense.
| Stat | Utah | Cincinnati | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.29 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.01 | 0.17 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.6% | 46.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6% | 44.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.4 | 35.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 14.6 | 26.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.