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Utah vs Utah State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UTAH 92% win8% USU
31Projected
vs
11ProjectedNeutral site
Utah Utes
Record 7–0 · #12 in ratings
Neutral site
Utah State Aggies
Record 2–5 · #123 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 92 vs 11
- Projected
- UTAH favored
- Differential
- 19.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Utah by 19.5
- Projected total
- 41.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 18.1%
- Went to overtime
- 1.5%
- Utah wins by 21+
- 46.1%
- Utah State wins by 21+
- 0.2%
- Median score
- 30–10
- Model expectation
- 30.5–10.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Utah wins, bars on the left are Utah State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Utah 27, Utah State 7117 games
- Utah 30, Utah State 7100 games
- Utah 27, Utah State 090 games
- Utah 27, Utah State 1089 games
- Utah 31, Utah State 788 games
- Utah 30, Utah State 088 games
Where the edges are
Utah offense vs Utah State defenseOffense +5.9Defense +1.1Edge Utah: its offense is 4.8 points better than Utah State's defense.
Utah State offense vs Utah defenseOffense -9.9Defense +5.0Edge Utah: its defense is 14.9 points better than Utah State's offense.
| Stat | Utah | Utah State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.01 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.7% | 36.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.6% | 40.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.4 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 14.6 | 23.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.