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UTSA vs Florida Atlantic prediction
Kickoff Thu 7:00 PM CT, at Florida Atlantic
UTSA 60% win40% FAU
37Projected29If FAU upsets
vs
33Projected41If FAU upsetsAway
UTSA Roadrunners
Record 7–1 · #55 in ratings
Home
Florida Atlantic Owls
Record 5–2 · #92 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | UTSA | FAU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 81 | 59 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up40%Florida Atlantic wins at home
At a neutral site33% ▼
Florida Atlantic: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Florida International 16–10, Navy 38–30)
UTSA: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Florida Atlantic won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UTSA 41, FAU 3748 games
- UTSA 34, FAU 2745 games
- UTSA 41, FAU 3442 games
- UTSA 37, FAU 2741 games
- UTSA 37, FAU 3039 games
- Power index
- 61 vs 34
- Projected
- UTSA favored
- Differential
- 3.7 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Florida Atlantic, luck set to normal. The real game is Thu 7:00 PM CT, at Florida Atlantic.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UTSA by 3.7
- Projected total
- 69.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- UTSA wins by 21+
- 14.1%
- Florida Atlantic wins by 21+
- 6.2%
- Median score
- 37–33
- Model expectation
- 36.5–32.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are UTSA wins, bars on the left are Florida Atlantic wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
UTSA offense vs Florida Atlantic defenseOffense +4.2Defense -8.0Edge UTSA: its offense is 12.3 points better than Florida Atlantic's defense.
Florida Atlantic offense vs UTSA defenseOffense +4.0Defense -1.5Edge Florida Atlantic: its offense is 5.5 points better than UTSA's defense.
| Stat | UTSA | Florida Atlantic | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | 0.26 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 46.8% | 48.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 43.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.5 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 34.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
