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Virginia vs Wake Forest prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:45 PM CT, at Wake Forest
UVA 18% win82% WAKE
15Projected
vs
28ProjectedAway
Virginia Cavaliers
Record 4–4 · #58 in ratings
Home
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Record 6–1 · #11 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 58 vs 93
- Projected
- WAKE favored
- Differential
- 12.7 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Wake Forest, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:45 PM CT, at Wake Forest.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wake Forest by 12.7
- Projected total
- 42.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Virginia wins by 21+
- 0.9%
- Wake Forest wins by 21+
- 27.9%
- Median score
- 14–27
- Model expectation
- 14.7–27.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Virginia wins, bars on the left are Wake Forest wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Wake Forest 27, Virginia 1092 games
- Wake Forest 27, Virginia 787 games
- Wake Forest 24, Virginia 779 games
- Wake Forest 20, Virginia 1075 games
- Wake Forest 24, Virginia 1073 games
- Wake Forest 20, Virginia 773 games
Where the edges are
Virginia offense vs Wake Forest defenseOffense -3.1Defense +6.4Edge Wake Forest: its defense is 9.5 points better than Virginia's offense.
Wake Forest offense vs Virginia defenseOffense +4.6Defense +4.5Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Virginia | Wake Forest | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | 0.36 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.09 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.7% | 49.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 41.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.3 | 37.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6 | 19.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.