Loading the matchup…
Virginia vs West Virginia prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UVA 53% win47% WVU
30Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Virginia Cavaliers
Record 4–4 · #58 in ratings
Neutral site
West Virginia Mountaineers
Record 5–3 · #67 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 58 vs 52
- Projected
- UVA favored
- Differential
- 1.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Virginia by 1.0
- Projected total
- 58.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- Virginia wins by 21+
- 10.9%
- West Virginia wins by 21+
- 8.7%
- Median score
- 30–28
- Model expectation
- 29.4–28.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Virginia wins, bars on the left are West Virginia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Virginia 27, West Virginia 2059 games
- Virginia 31, West Virginia 2748 games
- West Virginia 34, Virginia 3048 games
- Virginia 34, West Virginia 2748 games
- Virginia 30, West Virginia 2747 games
- West Virginia 34, Virginia 2744 games
Where the edges are
Virginia offense vs West Virginia defenseOffense -3.1Defense -6.7Edge Virginia: its offense is 3.6 points better than West Virginia's defense.
West Virginia offense vs Virginia defenseOffense +7.2Defense +4.5Edge West Virginia: its offense is 2.7 points better than Virginia's defense.
| Stat | Virginia | West Virginia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.09 | 0.26 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.7% | 42.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.3 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 19.6 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.