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Washington State vs San Diego State prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:00 PM CT, at San Diego State
WSU 36% win64% SDSU
24Projected32If WSU upsets
vs
29Projected21If WSU upsetsAway
Washington State Cougars
Record 1–7 · #118 in ratings
Home
San Diego State Aztecs
Record 3–5 · #104 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | WSU | SDSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 61 | 43 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog36%Washington State wins on the road
If Washington State plays at home52% ▲
Washington State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
San Diego State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Colorado State 49–56)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Washington State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- SDSU 20, WSU 1760 games
- SDSU 27, WSU 2059 games
- SDSU 31, WSU 2055 games
- SDSU 27, WSU 2455 games
- SDSU 24, WSU 1754 games
- Power index
- 15 vs 25
- Projected
- SDSU favored
- Differential
- 5.2 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at San Diego State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:00 PM CT, at San Diego State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- San Diego State by 5.2
- Projected total
- 52.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Washington State wins by 21+
- 4.7%
- San Diego State wins by 21+
- 15.9%
- Median score
- 23–28
- Model expectation
- 23.1–28.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Washington State wins, bars on the left are San Diego State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Washington State offense vs San Diego State defenseOffense -6.2Defense -5.0Edge San Diego State: its defense is 1.2 points better than Washington State's offense.
San Diego State offense vs Washington State defenseOffense -1.2Defense -2.2Edge San Diego State: its offense is 1.1 points better than Washington State's defense.
| Stat | Washington State | San Diego State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.06 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.14 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 34.1% | 36.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 48.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 18.9 | 26.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.6 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
