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Washington vs Nebraska prediction
Kickoff Sat 7:00 PM CT, at Nebraska
WASH 17% win83% NEB
20Projected31If WASH upsets
vs
34Projected22If WASH upsetsAway
Washington Huskies
Record 4–3 · #77 in ratings
Home
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Record 5–2 · #13 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | WASH | NEB | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 67 | 69 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert17%Washington wins on the road
If Washington plays at home30% ▲
Washington: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Purdue 38–26)
Nebraska: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Oregon 14–17)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Washington won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- NEB 30, WASH 1777 games
- NEB 34, WASH 1764 games
- NEB 37, WASH 1760 games
- NEB 34, WASH 1056 games
- NEB 27, WASH 1052 games
- Power index
- 45 vs 91
- Projected
- NEB favored
- Differential
- 14.4 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Nebraska, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 7:00 PM CT, at Nebraska.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Nebraska by 14.4
- Projected total
- 53.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Washington wins by 21+
- 1.3%
- Nebraska wins by 21+
- 34.2%
- Median score
- 19–34
- Model expectation
- 19.3–33.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Washington wins, bars on the left are Nebraska wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Washington offense vs Nebraska defenseOffense +0.1Defense +5.0Edge Nebraska: its defense is 4.9 points better than Washington's offense.
Nebraska offense vs Washington defenseOffense +5.5Defense -0.9Edge Nebraska: its offense is 6.4 points better than Washington's defense.
| Stat | Washington | Nebraska | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.14 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.00 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.5% | 44.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7% | 33.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.9 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 15.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.