Loading the matchup…
Washington vs Washington State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
WASH 70% win30% WSU
28Projected
vs
21ProjectedNeutral site
Washington Huskies
Record 4–3 · #77 in ratings
Neutral site
Washington State Cougars
Record 1–7 · #118 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 45 vs 15
- Projected
- WASH favored
- Differential
- 7.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Washington by 7.5
- Projected total
- 49.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Washington wins by 21+
- 19.2%
- Washington State wins by 21+
- 3.2%
- Median score
- 27–20
- Model expectation
- 28.1–20.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Washington wins, bars on the left are Washington State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Washington 24, Washington State 2064 games
- Washington 24, Washington State 1764 games
- Washington 20, Washington State 1764 games
- Washington 27, Washington State 1762 games
- Washington 27, Washington State 1058 games
- Washington State 24, Washington 2058 games
Where the edges are
Washington offense vs Washington State defenseOffense +0.1Defense -2.2Edge Washington: its offense is 2.4 points better than Washington State's defense.
Washington State offense vs Washington defenseOffense -6.2Defense -0.9Edge Washington: its defense is 5.3 points better than Washington State's offense.
| Stat | Washington | Washington State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.14 | -0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.00 | 0.14 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.5% | 34.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7% | 41.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.9 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.