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Western Michigan vs Bowling Green prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Western Michigan
WMU 87% win13% BGSU
31Projected19If BGSU upsets
vs
15Projected26If BGSU upsetsHome
Western Michigan Broncos
Record 5–3 · #66 in ratings
Away
Bowling Green Falcons
Record 2–6 · #132 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (42)
Starts at 42, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | WMU | BGSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 47 | 49 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert13%Bowling Green wins on the road
If Bowling Green plays at home25% ▲
Bowling Green: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Miami (OH) 24–20)
Western Michigan: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Bowling Green won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- WMU 34, BGSU 1084 games
- WMU 27, BGSU 1082 games
- WMU 27, BGSU 1481 games
- WMU 27, BGSU 1779 games
- WMU 34, BGSU 1775 games
- Power index
- 53 vs 4
- Projected
- WMU favored
- Differential
- 15.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Western Michigan, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Western Michigan.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Western Michigan by 15.5
- Projected total
- 45.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 26.2%
- Went to overtime
- 1.9%
- Western Michigan wins by 21+
- 35.3%
- Bowling Green wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- Median score
- 30–14
- Model expectation
- 30.6–15.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Western Michigan wins, bars on the left are Bowling Green wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Western Michigan offense vs Bowling Green defenseOffense -0.7Defense -4.0Edge Western Michigan: its offense is 3.3 points better than Bowling Green's defense.
Bowling Green offense vs Western Michigan defenseOffense -7.9Defense +1.2Edge Western Michigan: its defense is 9.2 points better than Bowling Green's offense.
| Stat | Western Michigan | Bowling Green | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.13 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.1% | 41.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 45.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.6 | 18.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.4 | 29.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
