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Western Kentucky vs Delaware prediction
Kickoff Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Western Kentucky
WKU 49% win51% DEL
27Projected34If WKU upsets
vs
28Projected22If WKU upsetsHome
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Record 3–4 · #119 in ratings
Away
Delaware Blue Hens
Record 3–4 · #99 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | WKU | DEL | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 42 | 50 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up49%Western Kentucky wins at home
At a neutral site41% ▼
Western Kentucky: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Delaware: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Middle Tennessee 30–33, Vanderbilt 26–35)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Western Kentucky won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- WKU 31, DEL 2753 games
- DEL 34, WKU 2752 games
- DEL 31, WKU 2751 games
- WKU 27, DEL 2350 games
- WKU 30, DEL 2749 games
- Power index
- 14 vs 28
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.4 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Western Kentucky, luck set to normal. The real game is Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Western Kentucky.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 55.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Western Kentucky wins by 21+
- 8.4%
- Delaware wins by 21+
- 9.2%
- Median score
- 27–27
- Model expectation
- 27.1–27.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Western Kentucky wins, bars on the left are Delaware wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Western Kentucky offense vs Delaware defenseOffense -5.2Defense -5.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
Delaware offense vs Western Kentucky defenseOffense -0.1Defense -3.3Edge Delaware: its offense is 3.1 points better than Western Kentucky's defense.
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Delaware | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.12 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.5% | 42.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 44.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.3 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.6 | 28.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
